按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
s。followed by what was。called 〃the crash of 1989；〃 not to be confused with the real Crash of 1987。 My dates。for November and December also came in very close。 By that time； I was。doing a few seminars； called 〃Safety。in the Market。。 After the low of the year came in on April 7； 1989； it reinforced my forecast top of October 4； 1989 （see Figure 6。5）。 This。was。presented to the attendees of my seminar and was。recorded on video。
My method for predicting the tops。and bottoms。was。simple and consistent with how I made my trading decisions； as。I’ve already outlined。 I don't regard either Time by Degrees or price action reaction as。a stand…alone indicator。 But as。can be seen here； when they。independently agree； there can be a window of opportunity。
My。decision was。based first on my Time by Degrees。theory。 October 4； the actual day of the top； came in 180 days。from the low of the year； April 7； 1989。 It was。also 180 weeks。from the high on April 21； 1986。 That was。the first of the double tops。and it came in at 1254。5。 It was。180 months。from the major low on September 27； 1974； which was。felt worldwide。 These time frames indicated a major change in trend。
The process。was。also based on the theory that time and price ranges。repeat。 The all…time low of our Australian Share Price Index contract came in on March 1； 1983； at a price of 458 exactly。 The first major top came in 1；162 days。later on May 6； 1986； at a price of 1255 exactly。（half a point higher than April 21； 1986； the other date in the double top）。 The market at this。time was。trading in decimal points。 So we had a time frame of 1162 days。and a price range of 1255 minus 458； which is。797 points。 The next major low； as。I've already。mentioned； occurred on July 28； 1986； at a price of 1058。 So if we are looking for a future price target；
**********************
Page 127
**********************
War and Market Cycles
Throughout this。chapter； I have made references。to wars。and their relation to Gann’s work。 I first became interested in the war cycles。after reading Gann's。1927 novel Tunnel Thai the Air； or Looking Back。From 1940； in which he wrote that the United States。was。about to be involved in an Armageddon…style war； starting in April 1930。 He described the Japanese planes。bombing the American fleet in the Pacific。as。the start of the war。 More than a decade before December 7； 1941； this。is。how he portrayed the United States。being dragged into the war：
The United States。government fearing that Japan would make the first attack。on the
Pacificast； either around Los。Angeles。or San Francisco； rushed the battle fleet to the
Pacific。 As。soon as。the battleships。cruised into the Pacific； Japan attacked from the air with the
noiseless。airplanes。and began dropping deadly bombs from great heights。 The antiaircraft guns。from the decks。of the battleships。were powerless。to reach the bombing planes。at such great heights。 Defeat was。swift and severe and only a few of the battleships。escaped plete destruction from the first attack。
His。timing was。off； but I can understand that because I know how he did his。calculations。
This。bookpelled me in 1988； sixty。years。later； to look。at the relationship between the United States。and Japan and see if this。knowledge could give me an advantage in trading。 In 1986； Tunnel Thru the Air led me to natural time because the book contained a lot of trading examples。 I found that the United States。led Japan by an exact time frame。 This。time frame varied with different situations。and industries。 For example； in the auto industry； Japan trails。the United States。by about twenty years。and Taiwan follows。Japan。 The American stock market seemed to lead its。Japanese counterpart by an approximate time frame of sixty years。 My theory was。that after the '87 Crash； when all of the markets。worldwide looked shaky； Japan still had a little more than two years。left in the bull market。 As。I was。doing my。work； the Japanese market kept defying the trend and going up。 The Japanese market topped on December 27； 1989。 Once that top was。in place； I could expect the same rundown that the United States。had experienced between 1929 and 1932。 The American market had run up 95 points。in ninety…five days。to top out on September 3； 1929； then it ran down for a period of 1；039 days。to July 8； 1932。 According to what I had learned from Gann's。book； when the Japanese market topped on December 27； 1989； it seemed to make sense that the Japanese market would not bottom out until sometime around October 31； 1992。
I did not trade either side of my call on the Nikkei 225 Stock。Average。 But I overlaid the 1929 weekly chart of the Dow Jones。Industrial Average with the 1989 chart of the Nikkei； shown in Figure 6。6。 In real time； the Nikkei ran down for 966 days。to bottom out on August 19； 1992； whereas。the Dow ran down for 1；039 days。in 1932。 The relevance of all this。bees。apparent when you look at the overlaid charts。
The Theory in Practice
Let's。take this。theory a little further and see what economic。advantages。we can derive from some of this。knowledge。 From 1998； under doctor’s。orders； I needed to ration my time and spend less。time working。 I had been publishing forecasts since 1988。 Often this。included drawing up road maps。for the stock。market。 Now that I had some time on my。hands； I decided to focus。on an aspect that had interested me—an analysis。of cycles。in the history of the twentieth century—using my own methods。and in my own time。 The results are astounding。
I participated in a worldwide traders。teleconference on September 7； 2002； which involved approximately 500 traders。 I spent about an hour and a half answering questions。 Early in the conference； I was。asked by one trader where I believed the next pressure point would be on the road map。 The first pressure point I mentioned was。July 28； 2004。 I also said there was。a pressure point somewhere around August 2…5； 2004。 I based this。on historical war dates。and the fact that 2001 was。an election year in the United States。
In November 2002 and again in 2003； I was。guest speaker at the annual traders' conference run in Sydney by Hubb Limited； a trading software developer who was。granted a license to sell my cour